Let's talk about something serious.

Instead of predicting when the bottom will come and how to bottom-fish, it's more important to focus on how to position ourselves for the bottom that is right in front of us.

The index, around this level (2900), even if it rebounds, the space is very limited.

Above 3310, it has now become a solid iron plate, and the range of 3150-3310 is a significant pressure zone, with relatively fewer trapped positions below 3150.

If the index rebounds from around 2850, even if it reaches 3310, the rebound space is just over 15%.

What the index needs is a time cycle for a rebound to catch its breath, and during this cycle, different industry tracks will perform differently.

That is to say, if the market is given a 2-3 month cycle, there will definitely be a structured market.

This structured market, who will be the main line, and how to outperform the index, has become a big question.

In the end, only 30%-40% can outperform the index at most, and the probability of most sectors losing to the index is higher.

At the individual stock level, it is also the same, with more than half of the stocks ultimately not even outperforming the index.So, even if it's about bottom-fishing, in this world, you must understand which direction to go for it.

Advertisement

If the direction is wrong, even if you judge the bottom correctly, you won't make much money.

It's like in 2023, there were no lack of market trends, but in areas such as new energy, the whole year was in a bear market cycle, with no opportunities at all.

Since 2019, when the market entered a structured trend, the investment logic of the whole market has become to find the right direction first, rather than judging the bull or bear market first.

No more small talk, let's get down to business, where is the direction.

1. Pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, traditional Chinese medicine).

Many big shots are optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry because the consumption of pharmaceuticals is a necessity.

The consumption of pharmaceuticals is undoubtedly a necessity, but the consumption of pharmaceuticals does not necessarily upgrade, and many pharmaceutical companies may not make money.

It's like buying clothes is a necessity, but the companies that make clothes, those that should go bankrupt will still go bankrupt.In the field of medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, especially high-end traditional Chinese medicine, is a product of consumption upgrading, and the market is experiencing stable growth.

In the field of medicine, innovative drugs, especially those targeting difficult and complex diseases such as cancer, are the real demand, and the market demand is very large.

Innovative drugs for diseases including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are also the real demand and development direction of the market.

Traditional medicines and medical devices may face a situation of weak growth, but the sub-tracks of traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs are the future of medicine and are also the focus of capital attention.

2. Technology (AI, software, media, robots, high-end chips, intelligent driving).

Big technology is definitely a big direction, but big technology is actually quite chaotic.

Many companies can jump out and say they are big technology companies, but there are not many with core technology.

These do not prevent the speculation of technology-themed topics.

The technology-themed topics are relatively broad, and there are many sub-tracks.

The leader is AI, which is the top priority, because all the technology overseas revolves around AI.Several branches of AI, such as information technology and software technology, including the previously mentioned XinChuang, are an important branch.

The application ports corresponding to AI, in the field of media and robotics, are also accelerating development.

Including intelligent driving itself, it is also similar to the application of AI in the automotive field, all belong to a large technology category.

The underlying technology needs hardware, the core of which is the chip, and it is the computing power chip.

The chip itself is also a big race track, which is very detailed, some low-end chip technology has already been conquered by our country.

However, there is still a big gap in the high-end chip field, the market space is actually very large, and it is also a key direction.

3. New Energy (Photovoltaic, Energy Storage, Lithium Mine).

I rarely talk about new energy, because the adjustment cycle of this industry has not yet ended.

But if you want to bottom fish in the short term, new energy is definitely the first to be hit.

Photovoltaic has fallen for six consecutive quarters, which is a quarter.Any market, during a continuous decline without a rebound, will accumulate a significant amount of rebound energy, and new energy is certainly no exception.

After being abandoned by capital for a long time, new energy will make every effort to rebound even with just an intermittent favorable factor, as capital needs to save itself.

Among them, the photovoltaic industry, corresponding to batteries and energy storage, is likely to be the first to be affected.

In addition, the upstream lithium ore prices have also almost fallen to the bottom, and there will be a period of stabilization, bringing about a rebound.

The opportunity for new energy is brief, but the certainty is very high. It is also the target for short-term capital to focus on bottom-fishing, and there will not be much long-term capital layout, which must be kept in mind.

4. Military industry (aerospace, satellites, ships).

Finally, let's mention a sector, which is the military industry.

The military industry is a magical industry because the military industry almost does not need to look at performance, only policy expectations and technological breakthroughs.

Why it does not need to look at performance is not much to say, because the military orders come from the country.

The upgrade of military enterprises is mainly an upgrade in the field of science and technology. The technologies that our military needs to break through are mainly in the sea and air aspects.No one would doubt that the strongest marine corps is on the ground, but in terms of maritime and air military strength, there is indeed a lot of room for improvement, and the technological content needs to be further enhanced.

Aviation, satellites, and ships are known as the trident of military industry, and they are present in every round of the market.

There is always another reason for the military industry to have a market every time, which is the expectation, the expectation of war.

As for whether it is a military war in the global market or an internal issue that we don't know when it will be resolved, this expectation is always long-term.

Finally, many people will ask me to talk about the weight.

I can only tell everyone that the opportunity for weight is very small, or there are very few big opportunities.

If the weight has the opportunity, first of all, we need to see if the real estate can recover.

The lifeline of the entire weight is actually tied to real estate, whether it is finance, infrastructure, energy, bulk, and so on, including large consumption.

The weight of real estate stocks in the overall market value may be small, but the entire industry chain occupies a very large market value in A-shares.If the real estate market does not have a strong recovery expectation, it will be difficult for the market to enter a significant bull market. There may only be a structural bull market, or it might not even be considered a bull market, but just a small rally.

The major opportunities still lie in directions with high technological content.

Finally, for those who are not adept at judging the direction, it is recommended not to engage in stock trading. Instead, consider investing in some index-based broad funds, preferably with higher volatility.

In this area and at this position, the risk-reward ratio is quite favorable.

Do not arbitrarily try to bottom-fish, especially when there is no clear direction. Never blindly follow the trend to bottom-fish.

If you don't make any money and get trapped again, it often means that the market has not yet reached the true bottom when everyone is talking about bottom-fishing.

First, keep an eye on the tracks you are optimistic about, and it's not too late to enter the market when there is a clear bottom signal.