The market has been increasingly distorted recently.
As the stock index continues to fall, bearish comments emerge endlessly, as if another stock market disaster is coming.
Last year, when the market was above 3,300 points, it was full of optimism.
This year, around 2,800 points, the market is full of pessimism.
If following the normal logic, the higher the market rises, the greater the risk, and the lower it falls, the less the risk, but now it has been reversed by public opinion.
This is not only a distortion of the market but also a decline in morality.
Capital always gives the market a phenomenon and leads to a result.
At the bottom, it tries every means to release bad news, causing panic among retail investors. The worst result is that they dare not replenish their positions, and the best result is to forcibly stop losses.
At the top, it tries every means to release good news, causing retail investors to be excited. The worst result is staying in the bubble and not wanting to leave, and the best result is a large increase in positions entering the market.
Advertisement
Guiding public opinion is equivalent to guiding people's hearts, and behind it is the rise and fall of the market and the weaknesses of human nature.Retail investors need to understand one thing: public information is the least valuable.
The essence of investing is a financial game on the information chain.
The party with the information advantage, even if somewhat weak in funds, has a greater chance of winning.
But high-quality information is often spread privately and does not come to the surface.
That is, the main capital has already received the news and seen the data, and retail investors are doomed to be a beat slow, or even many beats slow.
There is no wall that cannot be penetrated by the wind. No matter how perfect the confidentiality work is, there will always be people who know first, and the information will be spread out in the first place.
When the information ferments to the point where everyone in the market knows, it loses its value.
In fact, everyone knows in their hearts that the money that makes money will never be on the same starting line as retail investors.
Retail investors also need to understand one thing: the vast majority of media people do not understand investment.The majority of retail investors obtain information through the media.
However, the reality is that most media professionals do not understand investment and are not skilled in stock trading.
How can those who need to write a lot of content every day and conduct live broadcasts have the time to study the market?
Those who can make money through investment, especially those who make a lot of money, will not spend their days online, just to earn a meager amount of traffic fees.
Have you ever seen any investment magnate who spends their days making short videos? It's already quite good if they can write some investment review notes.
Public news media are even more so, as they report objective facts.
However, in the past two years, many media outlets have also started to attract attention by using sensational headlines, which are devoid of any nutritional value.
When the minds of retail investors are influenced by public information and radical statements, their trading will definitely be distorted.
It is often said that one should not trade with emotions.
Many times, it is no longer a matter of emotions, but rather an impact on the mind and cognition.The cognition of traders, due to the fluctuation of the market and the fluctuation of emotions, shifts from subjective optimism to self-doubt, but under pressure, eventually collapses.
They overturn their own cognition and logic, choosing to start over from scratch.
And this first step of starting over has become the source of loss, characterized by buying high and selling low.
How many retail investors fall before the dawn and die at dusk; it's all the same story.
The main force's tactics are nothing more than using a large number of water armies to create the atmosphere of the entire market, causing the market to fall into emotions.
Nowadays, with the advent of self-media, panic emotions do not need to be deliberately created and will be automatically amplified.
Retail investors will be more like headless flies, losing their direction, bumping around everywhere, until they are bruised and bleeding.
The market is in such a situation essentially because most of the time the market is in a zero-sum game.
That is to say, if the main force of capital does not create the market atmosphere, it cannot smoothly withdraw.Low position, not releasing a large amount of bearish comments, cannot get the bottom chips.
High position, not releasing a large amount of bullish news, cannot smoothly get rid of the body.
Someone asked, is the official media's remarks worth referring to?
Not worth it, very not worth it.
Because the direction of the official media is not the rise and fall of the index, but more inclined to the overall economy.
Moreover, whether the information released by the official media is instructed by the main force is still unknown.
In addition, the influence of the official media is huge, and the trust of retail investors is high, and the main force will often be used as a counter-indicator.
Anyway, it will be slowly forgotten over time, and things will fade away.
The best way to treat the inner trauma of retail investors is not to shout publicly, but to rise continuously.
Well, the scar is forgotten, which is also a human nature, which will lead to a high position to take over the disc repeatedly.Here is the English translation of the provided text:
An even more interesting point is whether everyone has noticed this.
The mentality of retail investors is very uncontrollable.
Take this time, for example, when it fell from 3418 to the current 2760.
During the process of falling from 3400 to 3200, the market was still relatively optimistic, including myself, who would think that below 3200 is a rare opportunity to add positions.
When it came to August, the market seemed to want to let stock investors make money, and then it started to pour downward.
From 3053 to 2923, but at that time, the market was still waiting for the bottom to appear, and the majority of voices were still bullish.
But when the market encountered significant declines after New Year's Day, especially after breaking through 2900 and 2800 consecutively, emotions began to turn against, and opinions also started to fluctuate.
The group that originally saw 2800 is now shouting 2600, and even 2400, 2200.
The retail investors who were buying more as the price fell suddenly dared not to buy, and panicked and wanted to sell.
The reason for this change in mentality is that the fear of the continuous decline is accelerating, and the account balance is decreasing.
(Note: The translation is provided with the assumption that the context is related to stock market behavior and investor sentiment.)At the same time, the atmosphere of bearish sentiment has been superimposed, leading to a mentality of stop-loss that is fermenting.
Stop-loss is not necessarily wrong, but it leads to a result: even if the price falls, one may not dare to buy.
Those who stopped at 3000 points are laughing at those who stopped at 2900, those who stopped at 2900 are laughing at those who stopped at 2800, and those who just stopped at 2800 are waiting for the market to drop to 2700 before they can laugh.
If the market rises, those at 2800 will cry first, then those at 2900 will start to panic, and then those at 3000 points will ponder whether to buy or not.
When these retail investors who stopped and left the market at that time come back in large numbers, the situation will reverse.
And what brings them back to the market is not someone else, but their own mentality.
From belief to disbelief, and then back to belief, the market is still the same market, the retail investors are still the same group, but the logic has changed.
Recently, a popular saying goes that the belief in value investing is collapsing.
It refers to those who trust in value investing, who took over in 2021, and it's already 2024, three years have passed.
The market has given them a return ranging from -50% to -80%.The article that was supposed to be about the most core assets of the A-share market has instead delivered the most painful returns.
If they are investors with unwavering faith, they should continue to buy at this stage, because once they stop, the road to future investment will be even more difficult.
In the investment circle, it's not the loss of money that is feared, but the fear of having to start over from scratch.
Because rebuilding faith and establishing a trading system is a very long and difficult process.
When you see through the essence of the market, which is human nature, you will become incredibly powerful.
At least for now, at this juncture, you will make rational choices and not let emotions lead to regret.
POST A COMMENT